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Football finished on a HUGE STREAK WINNING 15 of the last 21 highest rated plays (71%) PRIMETIME PLAYS FOR THE YEAR: 35-14; 71% MON, THURS & SUN TV GAMES PINNACLES WON 8 OF 10 TO END THE YEAR (80%)

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Nover's View: Don't sleep on the Heat

by Stephen Nover

Wednesday, Feb 23, 2022

The Miami Heat come out of the All-Star break 38-21. That's tied with the Bulls for the best record in the Eastern Conference.Yet there are three teams with shorter odds than the Heat to win the Eastern Conference, according to current numbers at the Westgate.The Nets are plus $2.75. The Bucks and 76ers are next both at plus $3.50. Then the Heat at plus $5.50.I think that's a pretty good price to take a shot on the Heat especially considering their three best players - Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry - missed a combined 57 games.The Heat check a lot of boxes: They have deep playoff experience having reached the NBA Finals just two seasons ago. They are strong defensively giving up the fifth-fewest points per game while ranking fifth in defensive field goal percentage and first in defensive rebounding. Miami shoots well, ranking in the top-four in 3-point accuracy and free throw percentage. The Heat also have an upper tier coach, Erik Spoelstra.So, yeah, at plus $5.50 I'll take a shot on the Heat to capture the Eastern Conference.

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Finding Huge Upset Winners in the NBA

by Wayne Root

Tuesday, Feb 15, 2022

OUR INITIAL PREMISE I have my own beliefs on how to spot a huge live underdog in the NBA. A typical winning streak for a very good team may hit double figures. Conversely, about the longest winning streak for a bottom dweller is usually maxed at three games. It’s amazing how often that team just can’t win that fourth game. Afterwards, another long losing streak awaits. Additionally, those very bad teams typically only have one three game winning streak. Thankfully, there are more than one horrific NBA team. THE GOOD, THE BAD; THE UGLY The gap between the really good teams and the really bad ones is probably bigger in the NBA than in any other professional league. The haves are so far from the have nots right now, it’s like they are playing different sports. When teams like that meet on the court the result is typically predictable and far from surprising. That alerts our betting senses to begin our analysis, Every so often, though, one of the lesser teams in the NBA will shock one of the good ones. Therefore, we must look to see if the huge underdog is going for that third win in a row to start with. Because those upsets are rare you can make a very nice return if you can correctly spot when the upsets could happen. STRANGE LINE MOVES The most reliable way to spot potential upsets is to look at NBA games that have caught the eyes of smart money bettors. Hopefully since you’re reading this, you know about smart money and our seasoned professionals. If, for example, the Suns are playing a bad team then you would expect the large majority of the public money to be on the Suns. The line should either stay steady or increase as a result. If the line falls in a case like that, though, then it’s a clear indicator that someone has been betting very heavily on the underdog. That’s not something the public would do unless there was an obvious reason like a major injury, so it has to be the smart money that is getting thrown around. There are certainly worse things you can do than paying attention to where the smart money obviously is and following it; such as guessing on you own. SLUMPING STAR PLAYERS The betting public will always think that LeBron is always LeBron– probably the best player in the league. Sometimes, though, even LeBron doesn’t play like himself. The easiest single way to spot a situation where an underdog could have a good day is to find situations where the NBA star isn’t playing like a basketball star. It could be that the player has put together substandard performances a couple of games in a row, or that he seems to be injured or playing at less than full health. We’re even aware of ( or at least try too) problems at a star players home life or side businesses. Life happens to all of us. When a talent is dominant he can drag the whole team down if he isn’t at his best, and even a bad team can take advantage of that and so can you as a wanting successful sports bettor. LOOK AHEAD GAMES I love certain, timely. specific look ahead games. Too many sports bettors have zero idea on upcoming games as they rarely consult the schedule. Favorite looking past underdog happen all the time. A team won’t be at their peak performance in 82 games. The Lakers aren’t going to be thinking about their game against Sacramento very much if it comes the night before they play the Phoenix Suns. That doesn’t mean that they are going to play badly enough to lose, but combined with other factors it could put the underdog over the top. At the very least, it could give the underdog more of an edge than they would have had otherwise. Not only will the favorite not be too excited about the game, but the underdog could be particularly motivated to make some noise against one of the heavyweights. Bad teams love nothing more that gearing up to take down Mr Bigshot. That might just be their super bowl game; the closest they’ll get at best. RESTED CONDITIONS We also look for our rested underdog up against that tired favorite that’s played four games in six days. Teams that are well rested can have an extra jump in their step. More significantly, the time off could give the underdog more time to practice and to prepare specifically for the opponent. The NBA schedule can be very quirky and teams can play three games in four days one week, then not play for four days the next week. Teams understandably can get run down when the schedule is brutal especially if the games come on the road. A team coming off a long road trip is tired More importantly, they may have a busy first day home attending to the kids, wife, business and family matters. Imagine the distractions and issues of just opening the mail. That first game back at home is usually unfavorable to the home team big favorite. IN CONCLUSION If you have trouble pulling the trigger on that huge underdog, don’t be a stranger, after all, that’s our only job; to find that gem that pays big bucks. 

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The NFC Championship Game: Might Ticket Sales Impact The Spread?

by Wayne Root

Thursday, Jan 27, 2022

WAYNE KNOWS!!!  The San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams are set to square off on Sunday in the biggest matchup this rivalry has seen in over 30 years. The winner claims the NFC title and heads to Super Bowl 56 while the loser of is off to go golfing. Week 18 had everything on the line. LA opened as a 6.5-point favorite but the line closed at 3.5 points. The line and probably the games momentum, certainly played a very huge role in the outcome of that 49ers overtime win.   What was built into that line had much todo about the “perceived” home field advantage. The wealthy 49er fan bought up tickets in bundles. By game time, a sea of red jackets, jerseys and hats dominated the inside of Sofi Stadium. San Francisco posted a 27-24 overtime win at Los Angeles to clinch a berth in the 2022 NFL playoffs. Now the ticket war is on for the NFC Championship Game.   The first thing the Rams ticket office did was set up to only sell tickets to customers that had a Los Angeles zip code. That continued to sparked a war of words. The first words fired came from a players wife on a local Los Angeles radio show. She was begging that anyone that lived in SoCal should NOT sell their tickets to those living in the Bay Area.   That was the wife of LA quarterback, Matt Stafford. She was pleading that in their Week 18 game, Stafford couldn’t call an audible because of the crowd noise. She said he had to go to a silent count. We’re talking about a home game at SoFi Stadium. The home of the Rams. They totally lost their home field advantage for that all important game.   This week, the LA Rams are going all out to prevent this from happening again. Why? In the first 51 games of the NFC Championship, the favorites have gone 33-18 straight up. This is expected to be a very close game according to the Vegas Oddsmakers. The opening line saw the Rams as a -4 point favorite. Those sales limited anybody from Northern California from sweeping them up. As of now, the ticket request has opened up for all. The request from the united 49er fans brought the line down to -3.5.   The purpose of this article is that three (3) points are usually calculated for the home field advantage. It’s up to everyone to decide it this is a correct line and additionally the response from the oddsmakers in lowering the point spread.   This is the length that a professional handicapper like a Wayne Allyn Root looks into and considers as part of his analysis. Remember, handicapping is not all X’s and O’s. Sometimes one has to go outside of the box when experience goes up against the oddsmakers.

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