Larry Ness - Louisville vs Mississippi State

Larry's CBB 10* Oddsmaker's Error (3-0?)

Handicapper
Larry Ness
League
NCAAB
Competition
Louisville vs Mississippi State
Time
11/25/2021 09:30 PM
Bet Type
Point Spread
Pick
Louisville +1.5 (-110) (Play MGM)
Outcome
Win
Analysis
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on Louisville at 9:30 ET. 4-0 Mississippi State and 3-1 Louisville have gotten off to good starts at home, as both hit the road for the first time this season when the two schools meet in the Bahamas Championship in Nassau on Thursday night. Both teams are led by outstanding head coaches, Ben Howland of Miss St and Chris Mack of Louisville. However, each team is coming off a disappointing 2020-21 season. Louisville was just 13-7, after the program had won 20-plus games in 18 of the previous 19 seasons, while Miss St had averaged 22.7 wins per season the previous three, before last year's 18-15 finish. Both teams have made 'heavy' use of the transfer portal. Louisville's leading scorer is Florida transfer Locke (16.0), who is joined in the starting backcourt with Marshall transfer West (7.0) and returning swingman Davis (7.3). The 6-11 Williams (6.8 & 9.3) and the 6-8 Withers (7.5& 5.8) are both returnees but the 6-7 Cross (9.0) comes via Miami. Throw in the 6-8 Williamson's 8.3 & 6.5 numbers and Mack has PLENTY to work with in the 2021-22 season. PG Molinar (15.8-4.0-5.3) is back for Howland and is leading the way. However, fellow guard Moore (13.8) is an NC St transfer plus the 6-9 Brooks (11.5 & 7.3) comes via North Carolina and the 6-7 Jeffries (11.3 & 5.3) via Memphis. This is the first real test for each team. A quick look shows that Miss St is allowing only 52.0 PPG (3rd) on 34.2% shooting but again, the competition has not been great. The Bulldogs are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games and I believe the Cards should be favored by a handful of points in this one (I took 1 1/2-points!). Expect Louisville to deliver the goods here on Thanksgiving. Good luck...Larry

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