Larry Ness - Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints

Larry's NFL 10* Thanksgiving Turkey Shoot

Handicapper
Larry Ness
League
NFL
Competition
Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints
Time
11/25/2021 08:20 PM
Bet Type
Point Spread
Pick
New Orleans Saints +6.5 (-110) (DraftKings)
Outcome
Loss
Analysis
My 10* Turkey Shoot is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET. The Buffalo Bills and the New Orleans Saints are both dealing with a short week as they prepare to meet Thanksgiving night in New Orleans plus both are trying to "regain their footing." The Bills were in the AFC championship game last season (13-3 regular season) but after a surprising upset at home to Pittsburgh in Week 1, won their next FOUR games, averaging 39.0 per contest. However, a 34-31 loss to Titans began a slide in which Buffalo has lost THREE of five and at 6-4, find themselves a half-game back of the 7-4 Patriots in the AFC East. The New Orleans Saints began the season without Drew Brees and then lost Jameis Winston in the team's Week 8 win over Tampa Bay, which gave them a 5-2 record. However, the Saints then lost back-to-back games by two points in the final moments. The Atlanta Falcons kicked a game-winning FG as time expired in Week 9 and then the Saints had a chance to tie but failed on a two-point conversion with 1:16 left at Tennessee (lost 23-21). Last Sunday, the Saints lost 40-29 at Philly, for their THIRD straight loss. Buffalo QB Josh Allen to his place among the elite QBs last season and through the Bill's first seven games, had a 17-3 TD to INT ratio. However, over the last three games (two losses), he has four TDs and five INTs. He's still having a good season (65.7% / 2,811 yards / 21-8 ratio with 340 rushing yards and 3 TDs) but it's time for him to step up. The running game is nothing special (118.8 YPG ranks 12th) but Allen has a strong cast of receivers. Diggs leads the way 60 / 6 TDs0 and possession receiver Beasley has 57 catches but a YPC average of only 8.8. Samuels has 33 catches (16.1 YPC / 4 TDs) and E Knox (28 / 5 TDs) complete the major contributors. However, Beasley's been limited in practice and is listed as questionable. The defense has remained solid throughout the ups and downs, allowing 17.6 PPG (2) and just 283.7 YPG (1st). Trevor Siemian finished up for Winston in the Tampa Bay win but despite the fact that he had two straight interception-free games in his first two games as the Saints' starter, the Saints lost both contests. That said, Siemian brought his team back from an 18-point fourth-quarter deficit against the Falcons to briefly take a lead with a minute left. He then brought the team back from a 14-point third-quarter deficit to the brink of tying the Titans. He threw three TDs at Philly (team's third straight loss) but had two INTs and a modest 214 passing yards. The Saints have played the last two weeks without injured RB Alvin Kamara, their most productive offensive player (530 yards rushing and a team-high 32 receptions). Kamara (knee) remains questionable for this game and so is his backup Ingram, who ran for 88 yards at Philly (was limited in practice this week). The Saints' offense this season has borne little resemblance to the prolific Payton-designed attacks that led the NFL in passing a half dozen times while Drew Brees was the QB New Orleans ranks second to last in passing, averaging 203.4 yards per game through the air (26th). It hasn't helped that top receiver Michael Thomas is missing this season because of complications related to his offseason ankle surgery. The Saints have won the last five meetings with the Bills, although the last meeting came back in 2017. However, New Orleans is 3-0 all-time on Thanksgiving and is playing on the holiday for the THIRD time in four seasons. Sure, Buffalo is the better team but so were the defending champion Bucs when they lost 36-27 back in Week 8. BTW...Wouldn't it be nice if all we had to do to win in the NFL was to "pick the better team?" The Saints have lost three games in a row for the first time since 2016 but take notice of this trend. The Saints opened the season with a 38-3 Week 1 shocker over the Packers and have been trading ATS wins and losses every single week. My bet says this trend (or pattern, or whatever you want to refer to it as) continues Thanksgiving night with the home dog 'barking' VERY loudly. Take the points. Good luck...Larry

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