Larry Ness - Mississippi vs Mississippi State

Larry's 10* Thursday Game of Year (12-3 YTD)

Handicapper
Larry Ness
League
NCAAF
Competition
Mississippi vs Mississippi State
Time
11/25/2021 07:36 PM
Bet Type
Point Spread
Pick
Mississippi +1.5 (-110) (William Hill)
Outcome
Win
Analysis
My 10* CFB Thursday Game of the Year is on Ole Miss at 7:30 ET. The ever-lovable Lane Kiffin will take Ole Miss (9-2, 5-2 SEC) to Starkville to play Mississippi State (7-4, 4-3) in the Egg Bowl, the state's annual Thanksgiving matchup between these two in-state rivals. Two of the nation's best QBs will be the featured attraction. Ole Miss' Matt Corral is completing 67.5% for 3,100 yards with 19 TDs and just three INTs. He's also run for 552 yards and 10 more scores. His counterpart is Mississippi State's sophomore Will Rogers. He is completing a staggering 76% for 4,113 yards with 34 TDs and eight INTs. NO QB in the nation has put up the numbers Rogers has in his last nine games, as he has clipsed 300 passing yards in each contest, with more than 400 yards in four of them! The edge for Ole Miss on the offensive side of the ball is a running game that averages 231.1 YPG (8th), as RBs Ealy (643 yards / 6.1 YPC / 5 TDs) and Connor (561 yards / 5.2 YPC / 11 TDs) join Corral for quite a balanced attack that is averaging 517.4 YPG overall (5th). WR Drummond is the best receiver (53 / 8 TDs) but four other WRs average between 15.6 and 22.1 YPC! In fact, Ole Miss is the ONLY team in the country with SIX players having recorded 100-yard receiving games this season! Th e defense is allowing 25.4 PPG, plenty good enough when the offense is averaging 36.4 points. Obviously, Rogers has thrived in Mike Leach's "Air Raid" offense but with the Bulldogs' running game averaging a putrid 62.1 YPG (129th) on 3.0 YPC, there is never any room for error with Miss St's passing game. WR Polk leads the way with 88 catches (9 TDs) and much like the Rebels' receiver corps, the Bulldogs have plenty of depth and talent. Much like Ole Miss, the Mississippi St defense allows 24.7 PPG but it doesn't own the kind of balance the Ole Miss offense has. Ole Miss has gotten healthier as the season has progressed and was clearly looking ahead last Saturday in only beating Vandy 31-17 but a win here would be VERY special. The Ole Miss program owns seven career 10-win campaigns (most recently Hugh Freeze's 10-3 showing in 2015) but all of the previous seven featured nine victories in the regular season and win No. 10 in a bowl game. A win here gets Ole Miss to 10-2 and could possibly lead to a New Year's Six Bowl berth. "Hotty Toddy!" Good luck...Larry

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