Wayne Root - Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks

MLB SMALL FAVORITE; BIG WINNER BLOWOUT

Handicapper
Wayne Root
League
MLB
Competition
Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Time
05/13/2022 09:40 PM
Bet Type
Moneyline
Pick
Arizona Diamondbacks -118 (William Hill)
Outcome
Win
Analysis
Gold Standard—-Arizona The Diamondbacks sure have come a long way from their dismal 2021 campaign to be favored against any team, even without one of their top three arms on the mound. Davies has a good matchup here however, as Chicago is among the weaker offenses in the league with their 21st ranked wRC+, and Davies’ lack of strikeout stuff gets a big boost facing a team that strikes out 24.3% of the time, good for seventh in MLB. The Cubs don’t have much power to begin with (22nd ranked ISO), and Davies limits hard contact (93rd percentile) and exit velocity (94th percentile) at an elite level, making it unlikely for the Cubs bats to do much damage. Throw in a little revenge factor while facing his former club and he is in a prime spot to have a great day on the mound. Smyly has been decent to begin the year, but with a FIP more than two runs higher than his ERA, some negative regression is sure to come. The Arizona bats haven’t been able to muster much in the early going, but they have enough pop to get to Smyly for enough runs to make a good effort from Davies standup.

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